Hi everyone, the topic I'm sharing today is Crossing No Man's Land.
What is No Man's Land?
First, China today has never encountered so much uncertainty in the world and at home.
Secondly, all Chinese entrepreneurs, from the original follow, copy, imitate can move forward, now found that we have reached the parallel run or even lead the state, as in a no line markers on the river traveling, so I call it no man's land.
So, it's perfectly normal to experience trepidation and bewilderment.
In response to this, I'd like to share with you how we look at this era, at China, at the industry, and even at ourselves.
I. What is wrong with the world today?
You can't do well without looking at the whole picture, and you can't do well without looking at the world. Today I would like to share with you my view of the world from another cognitive dimension.
We were shut down for three years during the epidemic and basically cut off from the world. Much of the news was obtained by watching the news and reading the newspapers; hearing is not believing, seeing is believing, and one must walk on the ground to see what the outside world is really like.
After the closure was liberalized, I spent 80 days traveling to more than a dozen countries, Europe, America, Oceania, East Asia, and Southeast Asia.
Here, I share what I have seen change in the world these past three years.
1. Europe
I spent 20 days in Europe last October, including England, France, Germany, and Switzerland.
After walking down these days, I see a very unfamiliar Europe, the original head of Europe is very glorious, when you think of Paris, think of the Eiffel Tower, Notre Dame, the Seine River.
Went and found out:
First, the city was surrounded by garbage, many tourists had their money stolen and robbed, and many places even smelled like urine. Simply a big disappointment.
Secondly, the internet is unimaginably bad, and it cuts out every now and then.
Third, inflation is scary. I went to a British Lanzhou ramen, a noodle 15 pounds, equivalent to 150 yuan. Staying in a hotel for one night for 2,000 euros, settled down to 20,000 yuan.
Fourth, it actually takes 15 days to deliver a courier in the same city.
In addition, I was struck by the fact that it was Chinese companies that made a big splash at the International Fashion Fair, with one Bosideng taking over Charles de Gaulle and London Heathrow airports. And then there was Anta, which, after acquiring an old French apparel company, is still determined to continue expanding its territory.
What shocks me more is that in the Munich Auto Show, which used to be dominated by German cars, BYD actually triggered a large number of Germans to swarm around it, and one of my friends, who is an emotional person, even burst into tears.
At that time, I thought of a friend, Mr. CHENG Kwong-man, who started out in the automobile industry and transformed into precision manufacturing, which he did very successfully.
He shared a very interesting perspective with me:
The original automotive industry, which can be considered the crown of Western industrial civilization, has had little or no Chinese presence in its hundreds of years of development.
First of all, there are the German cars, the German people's rigor is shown to the fullest, and Italy is a splendid nation, from Ferrari, Lamborghini are using art cells and design to create stylish sports cars, we can not learn. We can't learn from Ferrari and Lamborghini's artistry and design, and we can't catch up with Japan's precision manufacturing.
But it did not occur to me that God closed a door and opened a window, and the whole rise of new energy vehicles, China with a bend in the road to overtake the car, suddenly ran to the front.
This also reminds me of a public case more than a decade ago, when the hottest topic was the haze besieging the city, especially when we were living in Beijing, which was gray every day. Many publicists thus said that the Chinese were too capable of creating pollution, and that if they wanted to integrate into the world, they must comply with the initiative proposed by Europe - "joining the dual-carbon scheme".
At that time, we were all half-convinced. On the one hand, we felt that it was indeed necessary to protect the environment, but on the other hand, we were also worried about one question: Can it be feasible to reduce emissions when we have just had enough to eat?
I didn't realize that 15 years later, China has become a pioneer in carbon emissions and carbon neutrality. And in terms of industry, it has all of a sudden run to the front, from new energy vehicles to photovoltaic to lithium batteries, all of a sudden it has become a frontrunner. On the contrary, the original radical Europe began to turn to the right, postponing the ban on fuel vehicles, and the original face is completely inconsistent.
This change, really unexpected, and this kind of change in China's recent history has happened repeatedly. 20 years ago, when China joined the WTO, everyone felt very frightened, worrying that they do not have the strength to compete with the West on the same stage, and the final result was unexpected, after formally joining the WTO, China realized the first internationalization of the products are sold all over the world.
And this time, carbon emissions, carbon neutral, China all of a sudden produced a number of strategic emerging industries, especially the three big ones: lithium batteries, photovoltaic, new energy vehicles.
After seeing Europe, my deepest feelings were: If you don't go out, you don't realize the enormous power that China has built up, and that many things are already bending the road to overtake, or even lead the way.
2. Southeast Asia
When I was in Vietnam, I found that the local Chinese had taken root everywhere, and many of them were from the Pearl River Delta in China.
Many people worry about what will happen to industrialization after China's factories run out.
Originally, I also have this worry, but after this trip to Southeast Asia, I am not worried, because I found that the spillover of Chinese enterprises is selective, the core link of the supply chain, the two ends of the smile curve (R & D, branding, channels, patents) is still firmly controlled in the hands of China.
Another thing that struck me about walking in Vietnam was that our guide was a Vietnamese girl named Precious.
One day she told a story:
They have been farming for generations, but when she wanted to be a tour guide, her parents forced her to learn English, and when she refused to listen to them and insisted on learning Chinese, her parents beat her out of the house, saying that she would never have a future in Chinese.
Unexpectedly, learning Chinese not only changed her fate, she bought a house in the city, got married, her parents moved from the countryside to the city, and finally her parents chased her to bring all her younger siblings out to learn Chinese.
This is a very true story. When I went to Vietnam 10 years ago, in the minds of Vietnamese people, investors were categorized into three groups: the first group was Europe and the United States, the second group was Japan and South Korea, and the third group was only China.
As I go back to it today, along with the upliftment of the industry, the status of the Chinese in Vietnam has been extraordinary.
After Vietnam, I went to Thailand. Many people say that Thailand is equivalent to China 20 years ago, with skyscrapers and urban villages, cluttered but vibrant. But a Thai friend had a very original point of view when he said thatThailand is not the China of 20 years ago.
Because the cornerstone of China's development is high-speed urbanization, high-speed industrialization and high-speed real estate, when the urbanization rate has reached 60%, the urban pattern is basically formed.
The silence of China's real estate today also indicates that this era is over, so what should the economy do if it wants to continue to grow?
In fact, the way is very simple, it can only rely on the expanded reproduction of connotation, that is to say, the enhancement of content and the enhancement of life taste.
This time I went to Thailand for a long time, I found that although Thailand looks fixed, similar to Guangzhou 20 years ago, but in fact in the content of the continuous upgrading, the first internationalization, the second with the times, a lot of emerging industries in Thailand is developing very rapidly, the next step in China is also about to face such a problem.
3. Japan and Korea
I can't talk about any new discoveries after arriving in Korea, but it has further deepened my knowledge of the country.
I found out that South Korea, despite claiming a GDP per capita more than double ours, found out that Koreans eat beef soup as a luxury product, so I've always wondered how that statistic is derived.
Japan has basically been in the doldrums for the past three years, but Japan's tourism is extraordinary. When I went to Japan, I found that many people from Europe and the United States traveled to Japan, and Japan has made great strides by relying on cultural tourism.
During the trip, I also met a Japanese scholar.
We talked about the fact that many of the problems in China today are particularly similar to the state of Japan's economy after its rapid growth in 1990, which came to an abrupt end: first, the real estate crash; second, the financial dangers; third, the crisis in the industrial sector; and fourth, the stagnation of the economy.
So, the West as a whole is singing China's praises, thinking that China is definitely not working.
But this Japanese scholar inspired me very much.
He said, "I am 40 years old, I was born when Japan was still at its high point, and in 1990 I started to feel that every year was worse than the last, and fell into the lost 30 years.
Then after I graduated from college and saw that China was rising day by day, I included China in my research, and I went to Tsinghua and Peking Universities in China as a graduate student to be a researcher on China. I don't think it's possible for China to be in stagnation for 30 years."
I asked him why, and he gave three reasons:
Article I.Japan is an island nation with a population of over 100 million, China is a huge market with 1.4 billion people, and many of them are middle class now, China relies on the domestic demand to pull the external demand, and the internal cycle to pull the external cycle, and it will be enough to withstand almost all the global suppression and challenges.
Article II.China has the most complete and powerful industrial chain in the world, and no country can complete the final product without cooperating with China.
Article III.The Chinese government's strong ability to regulate, and the willingness of the Chinese people to cede some of their personal power to the greater good in times of crisis, is enough to carry China through the cycle.
This is what the Japanese told me, and after listening to it, I went back and looked at the new quality of productivity in China, which made me even more convinced that this answer was justified.
4. China-United States relations
A few years ago, I said on many occasions that China and the United States are completely different ways of thinking. And behind this are two major traps that are almost irreconcilable:
One is the Thucydides Trap.The ancient Greek historian Thucydides, through the Peloponnesian War, summarized the idea that rising powers were bound to challenge the existing powers, and the existing powers were bound to respond to that threat, so that war became inevitable.
Throughout the thousands of years of human society, there have been a total of 15 changes of leadership, of which 11 have involved wars. Therefore, the Thucydides Trap is almost considered to be the iron law of international relations.
The United States, as the boss for many years, has cleaned up countless "second", from the United Kingdom before and after World War I, Germany in World War II, the post-war European Union, Japan in the 1990s, and then the disintegration of the Soviet Union, have suffered from the United States of America's strategic containment.
China is one of the most unique of the "second" challengers to the United States. Although the former Soviet Union had a different political system from that of the United States, its cultural dimension belonged to Christian civilization in the broad sense of the word.
Although Japan is culturally specific, it has comprehensively learned from the West economically and institutionally, and China is the only country that is a very different cultural body, economy, and institution from the United States.
The rapid rise of China fully demonstrates that "history has not yet ended" and that capitalism is not the highest stage of human development, so the attitude of the United States in the face of a very different catching up is very complicated and difficult to accept.
The United States today is actually kidnapped by the so-called political correctness and strong public opinion. The Americans have been the boss for decades after the war, and its strength has determined its arrogance. Trying to change this overall public opinion in the United States is almost impossible in the short term.
The second inevitable trap is the "middle-income trap".Historically, many countries, such as Mexico, Brazil and Argentina in Latin America and the Philippines in South-East Asia, have failed to cross the hurdle from middle-income to developed countries.
Today's China is also facing this danger. 1.4 billion people, there are a large number of people who are in urgent need of development and enrichment. If you want to break out of the "middle-income trap", you have to make a breakthrough in high technology, and in the future game of great powers, science and technology will be the most important thing, and the comprehensive strength of a country in the field of science and technology largely determines its position in the international power pattern.
It turns out that China can imitate and follow, and produce some low-end products. Now to continue to move forward, we must lead in science and technology, breakthroughs, go through the process of upgrading, from labor-intensive low-end manufacturing to technology-intensive high-end manufacturing, otherwise there is no future.
The core of the U.S. suppression of China is also high-tech containment.China does not engage in high-tech, will inevitably fall into the "middle-income trap", in order not to fall into the "middle-income trap" must be engaged in high-tech, so whether it is for the United States, or for China, a short period of time is a contradiction that can not be reconciled, this point we must be This point we must recognize clearly.
Therefore, the next competition between China and the United States is still very intense this is the consensus of the Democratic and Republican parties, whoever comes to power is not much difference. This has also resulted in the world pattern today.
II. Three forces determining the global situation::
Great Power Gaming, Artificial Intelligence, Services Trade to the Sea
1. The Great Power Game
Ten years ago, when Sino-US relations were still very good, I would take many entrepreneurs to the United States every year, and when I went to Silicon Valley to have a talk, an American told me a point of view: the United States has put forward a slogan called "China and the United States, China and the United States are linked together, and the world will be able to share the peace.
Finally, when Trump came to power, he did not accept this and began to practise a repressive approach, resulting in today's pattern. There are some people who believe that the deterioration of Sino-US relations in recent years is due to China's too high profile on the world stage, and such a view is undoubtedly an insult to the intelligence and determination of Americans.
China is like an elephant in its infancy, and it is undoubtedly self-deceiving to try to hide behind a small tree. Under the situation that stretching one's head is also a knife, and shrinking one's head is also a knife, the showdown between China and the United States has a profound historical inevitability.
In the foreseeable future, China and the United States must be in the long-term cooperation and competition in the continuous collision of development, this process will last at least a dozen years. In such a perilous external environment, than the "boil" is still going on, hard times are certain.
I have been studying US-China relations and the world landscape. By studying history, I've realized that a lot of things in the world that aren't connected are actually connected.
500 years ago, when Columbus discovered the New World, the whole world saw the first globalization, the great voyage appeared, and basically the West rewrote the world in military and colonial terms, and China's agrarian society was basically descended upon and had no power to fight back.
In the process, it was basically assumed that the West was the place where we learned and worshipped, and that we couldn't go on without it.
One of the things that inspired me very much here was a book I found when I was in college called "Looking into the 21st Century," a conversation between Daisaku Ikeda and the great British historian Toynbee.
In one of the most fascinating conversations, Daisaku Ikeda asked Toynbee which country would lead the world in the future. Without hesitation, Toynbee said China.
This is a conversation from 1971, when China was in great difficulty and poverty.
So I also thought it was incredible, and then when Daisaku Ikeda didn't believe me he asked him why, and Toynbee said three things that I can't forget to this day.
He said that Europe and the United States, represented by the United Kingdom, were just a historical mob that descended on the globe with the head soup of industrialization and ended up as the world's hegemon.
stillFrom the perspective of civilization, the West is only a nation-state with a history of only about 500 years, while China has a civilization of 3,000 years, and they have established extraordinary management and regulation and measures as well as a civilization after thousands of years of precipitation, and the contrast in power is just like the contrast between a big tree and a flowering plant.
This was a conversation from around 1971, and I didn't realize that decades down the road, Toynbee's point had become a reality. It's a great power game and a cultural game.
2. Artificial Intelligence
The United States has a characteristic: Americans are responsible for solving the problem of 0 to 1, scientific and technological innovation, once the solution to 0 to 1, take the scientific and technological achievements to fly to China, China with a strong industrial chain and supply chain quickly from 1 to 100, into products.
Today's artificial intelligence, many people think it will become a new divide between China and the United States, including my wife, but I do not see it that way. Because I think artificial intelligence is still in line with this law, from 0 to 1 is the United States to do it, but from 1 to 100 space in China, China's rich industrial ecology and consumer scenarios, and ultimately will be the most fertile soil for artificial intelligence to take root and germinate.
3. Trade in services to the sea
The original we often talk about Apple's cell phone, a cell phone 10,000 yuan, Apple may want to take away 8,000 yuan, China's production of a cell phone to earn dozens of dollars.
And today, after the Chinese went overseas, from Jitterbug to Pinduoduo to Xiyin, they have completely changed the world landscape.
A few days ago, I went to the headquarters of the Xiyin to visit, and found that their boss is a young man after 80, studied foreign trade, after graduation to Nanjing, specializing in foreign trade business.
In the process of doing foreign trade, he found a huge business opportunity:Over the years in China, especially after the emergence of e-commerce and mobile Internet, Chinese people have developed extraordinary consumption scenarios and consumption patterns after more than 20 years of building e-commerce.
So he successfully walked out of a fast fashion road based on two points: first, China's developed supply chain and industrial chain, and second, the ability of accurate reverse customization through the Internet e-commerce platform.
When I talked to him, he said, our core is a small single fast return, basically after 50 pieces of clothing orders, can be quickly shipped, as long as the results are good, the Chinese supply chain and the industrial chain can quickly make up the production capacity, and the price is only half of the European, or even 1/3. so Xiyin naturally sweep the world.
III. An uncertain world, a certain China
Against the backdrop of the current complex and volatile global situation, China presents a unique certainty as a stable and determined force.
In the face of an uncertain international environment, how should China maintain its own stability and development? Next, I will share a few thoughts on China's current situation.
1. China today, on ice and fire
In China today, when you spend time with friends around you, you'll find a general sense of apprehension pervading, with people facing unemployment or filled with pessimistic sighs.
Yet when you turn to another group, a very different picture of life is revealed.
First of all, you may encounter the phenomenon of "border control", i.e., restrictions on leaving the country due to, for example, a debt dispute.
Perhaps there are friends who are unable to leave the territory because they are involved in cooperating with the investigation of a certain official, and there are even people who have arrived at the airport but are forced to turn back and are thus blacklisted.
A more serious case is "lien". A client of mine, whom I worked with 10 years ago, was suddenly placed in detention the year before last, and after nine months of detention and hundreds of millions of dollars in fines, he finally returned. However, I found out yesterday that he had been placed in detention for the third time, and the location had been changed to another old district.
When one is surrounded by such friends, one cannot help but wonder about the prospects of the private sector economy, and whether the whole society is filled with an air of despair and depression. This is the first phenomenon I wish to point out.
On the other hand, when you reach out to a new generation of young people, it's as if you're in another world.
I have a relative in her 30s who quickly became a hot Internet celebrity with tens of millions of followers after returning from overseas study. Not long ago, she invited me to attend her wedding, which took place in Hangzhou. This city is unique in that it has bred countless new economic forces, and thousands of bandwagoners have chosen to settle here.
Revealing that things are currently going great, as if there are dollars floating in the air, her agent is determined to make billions between the ages of 30 and 35 and lay a solid foundation for the rest of her life.
Dong Yuhui's experience, for example, is also a vivid case in point. He worked hard for eight years as a teacher and became a top traffic figure in one fell swoop after joining Oriental Selection, sparking a nationwide buzz.
Yu Minhong even launched a special campaign to walk with Hui as a way to retain Dong Yuhui, single-handedly boosted the writer's group, and even Huawei, such an industry giant, also looked for him to bring goods. A night with goods, sales of up to 100 million yuan, which is also very good data for Huawei.
Today, China is in a dichotomy of ice and fire. On the one hand, people in traditional industries appear to be downcast and discouraged, while on the other hand, the trendsetters on the new economy track are showing vitality.
This reveals a fundamental problem: China's economy is transitioning from the first half to the second half, and those who have adapted only to the rules of the first half or still rely on the old model tend to fall into the predicament described above. Those who have successfully transitioned to the new economy are full of opportunities and are full of life.
In short, the nature of the ice and fire reflects a profound shift in the structure of the Chinese economy.
2. Under the synthesis fallacy, confidence is more expensive than gold
Many entrepreneurs have asked me today whether private entrepreneurs are facing tough times and whether there is some kind of top-level policy design that is causing them to do so. Based on my deep insights into China as a whole, this is not the case, for two main reasons.
First of all, from a macro-historical perspective, the governance and development of any country follow the rhythm of tension and relaxation, and orderly progress and retreat, i.e., the way of the civil and military, one for each and the other for each.
Secondly, the important laws that drive the development of human society usually revolve around two core elements, namely, equity and efficiency. It is often difficult to strike a balance between the two in the design of the system, and trade-offs often need to be made at different stages or in different areas.
The currently observed challenges faced by private entrepreneurs are more a manifestation of the fallacy of synthesis. To cite two short stories.
Last October, I was invited by Hangzhou to give a speech at the Future Science Conference. After my speech, my friends told me that after my speech, NetEase's stock dropped more than 25%. Of course, this is a joke, but in fact, it was because at noon that day, the government issued a request for opinions on the rectification of the game industry. After the release of the consultation, NetEase and Tencent's stock prices plummeted.
The central government intervened urgently as stock prices plummeted. According to individual sources, the top brass expressed anger at this and criticized the Press and Publication Bureau for not interfering arbitrarily. In the end, the government, in a rare move, withdrew its earlier consultation.
At the time of this incident, many industries are also quietly changing. The year before last, Yu Minhong invited me to have a conversation.
At that time, Yu Minhong was depressed, telling me that the central government suddenly introduced a policy to rectify the teaching industry, making the market value from hundreds of billions of dollars almost evaporated. Had to switch to selling vegetables, but Yu Minhong's persona is indeed good, including the teaching aids and desks and chairs he purchased with 500 million yuan was originally intended to be a big deal, but I did not expect to suffer a blow.
He chose to donate these teaching aids to the old, young and poor areas, and eventually turned to e-commerce with goods, successfully killing a bloody road.
Today, Oriental Selection is making a name for itself on the live bandwagon, but the teaching industry seems to have gone through the cycle of spring, summer, fall, and winter, and it seems to be showing signs of recovery.
It can be said that much of what we feel today is misunderstanding and over-regulation due to yesterday's synthetic fallacy. We mistakenly thought that these regulations were a crackdown on the private economy, when in fact that was not the original intention of the leaders.
What is the spirit of the central government? Through the two sessions, we can learn that Deng Xiaoping put forward 40 years ago that development is the hard truth, and today the central government has put forward "high-quality development is the hard truth of the new era", and Chinese-style modernization is the biggest politics at present. These two phrases can be said to be sound.
If over-emphasizing fairness will lead to synthetic fallacy and make the private economy feel the chill, then I now clearly foresee that the pendulum has begun to tilt towards efficiency. What we need to do is to make a bigger cake and develop new quality productive forces, and the confusing and unclear policies of the past will be adjusted.
Therefore, I have come to the conclusion that the private economy will have the best policy window in the next five or 10 years. Winter is over and spring is ahead. Now is the best time, this is my basic judgment.
In conclusion, I would like to emphasize thatThe challenge we face is not just economic cycle fluctuations, but a reshuffling of the times.
Business models accustomed to in the past, including those of entrepreneurs who have suffered liens due to unspoken rules in the industry, are experiencing the brunt of this change. As the State resolves to liquidate and govern the ecosystem, almost every business is involved to varying degrees, so yesterday's behaviors will inevitably require a price to be paid today.
Once we have learned our lessons, turned the page on yesterday and embraced a new era of doing business in a fair and just manner, we will have a fresh start and can let go and move forward in a big way.
IV. Talking about the future: new quality productivity
1. What is new quality productivity?
After discussing the current international situation and China's current status, we focus on the future, especially the impact of new quality productivity on the future.
The concept of new quality productivity put forward by the central government has sparked widespread discussion, and I have summarized it into four directions: new infrastructure, new energy, new smart manufacturing and new consumption, which will drive China to shift from quantitative growth to quality improvement.
In addition, strategic emerging industries such as new materials, the aviation economy, big data and intelligent areas are undoubtedly an important part of the new quality productivity.
It is worth noting that the new quality of productivity is not limited to new and high-tech industries; traditional industries can also be revitalized through upgrading and transformation and become a key part of the new quality of productivity.
2. The Four New Changes in China
① New Infrastructure
Today, many entrepreneurs have asked me how to find the right entry point and avoid dispersing resources against the backdrop of the restructuring of the old economic landscape and the rise of the new economy. As the saying goes, it is better to cut off one finger rather than injuring ten.
For enterprises, when venturing into a new industry, the first task is to focus all efforts on solving the breakthrough from 0 to 1, i.e., creating a competitive core mold.
Take one of my clients, Lao Xia, as a typical case. He is a senior student of Tsinghua University, originally engaged in the water treatment industry, and achieved remarkable results in the field of environmental protection and water treatment. However, due to the difficulties in capital recovery, business expansion was hindered, and he had a hard time for some years.
Recently, I met him again, and he has successfully transformed himself to use big data and smart economic tools embedded in the field of heavy industry and urban governance to successfully solve the serious pollution problems caused by the steel mills in Handan City, Hebei Province.
By providing a full set of services from program design, platform construction to operation tracking, combined with the technology of big data engineers from Huawei and other companies, we have successfully created a new infrastructure model for efficient operation.
Once molded, it immediately attracted the attention and cooperation of many municipal governments in Hebei and Henan provinces, with orders coming in thick and fast. Not only won the high degree of recognition of the market in Hebei, Henan, Shanxi and other places, the surge in business, and to achieve a healthy financial income and expenditure, operating income quickly exceeded 100 million yuan.
This vividly demonstrates the huge market potential of China's current new infrastructure, which can be worth up to tens of trillions or even trillions of dollars. For entrepreneurs transitioning from the old economy, it is indeed worth thinking deeply about whether they can get a share of this wave.
Last year I traveled to Tibet to inspect a major copper mining project. Although China is rich in mineral resources, many mines are difficult to develop because they are located at high altitudes of 4,000 to 5,000 meters.
However, after the introduction of big data empowerment and smart platform construction, nearly unmanned mining operations were successfully realized. The project eventually contributed about 1.5 billion yuan in local tax revenue, and plans to further promote the application of the new infrastructure in Tibet.
The effect of the new infrastructure can be heard but not seen.
② New Energy
In 2022, I was invited to be a director of LONGi Green Energy. I've never been a big fan of directorships in public companies, but this time I made an exception.
Firstly, the two founders of LONGi are my schoolmates in Lanzhou University, which is also considered to add honor to my alma mater; secondly, I have been looking for an opportunity to study China's new energy industry and the head of the enterprise, and I have been able to understand the prospect of the wide application of photovoltaic industry in the field of new energy, and I have really seen the huge pulling effect of the new energy industry.
After in-depth exchanges with several founders of LONGi Green Energy, to explore the law of its success, and finally I concluded that the success of LONGi Green Energy, lies in another way to stick to the monocrystalline silicon technology routes, pressure on the track, after years of technological accumulation, LONGi Green Energy has finally formed a strong comprehensive cost advantage.
According to founder Li Zhenguo, the life and death line of solar PV industry is the comprehensive power generation cost per kilowatt-hour. LONGi Green Energy's power generation cost is now only 10 cents per kilowatt-hour, the average cost of domestic photovoltaic power generation is 0.29-0.30 yuan, but the overall is still better than coal power, the cost determines the market competitiveness of the photovoltaic industry.
Looking back on the development of China's new energy industry, due to the industry attributes lead to its high initial investment, long return cycle, the early stage can not be separated from the government's support. Many pioneers emerged in the market in the early years, but they all fell before the dawn.
Unexpectedly in the last two years, the accumulation of quantitative change has finally achieved a qualitative breakthrough, wind power, solar energy and other industries can no longer rely on government subsidies to achieve profitability. The industry's singularity moment has arrived.
For the martyrs, we have respect, but the key to the rise of the new energy industry, or is the country's attention at the strategic level, focusing on the long term, a long time to work. Although the short-term view of the account, there are even a lot of fraudulent subsidies for malignant events, but in the long run, but for the upgrading of the industry to lay a solid foundation.
Distributed power generation, for example, China's use of existing buildings only to install photovoltaic power generation market potential of about 3 trillion kilowatts or more, coupled with the vast western Gobi photovoltaic power generation market potential of about billions of kilowatts or more, solar photovoltaic power generation has a broad space for development, and its development potential is very huge.
In addition to the photovoltaic industry, China dominates the production of many key minerals needed for green products, including rare earths, cobalt, lithium, copper and nickel.
For example, China has completed about 60% of global lithium processing, with a cost advantage of 20-25% compared with the West. The rapid development of the new energy industry has also driven a number of industries such as electrical machinery manufacturing, new energy vehicles, high-voltage transmission, non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling.
At present, China's ultra-high voltage technology has reached the world's leading level; Ningde Times also occupies the world's No. 1 position in the battery market. ...... It is precisely this series of achievements that China has the courage to make a commitment to the world to "reach the peak of carbon, carbon neutral", which will be one of the strongest cards for China to enter the world. This will also be one of China's strongest cards to the world.
③New Intelligent Manufacturing
The new technological revolution is changing rapidly, and a wave of digitization and intelligence is sweeping the world.
The new round of information technology represented by the Internet, big data, cloud computing, artificial intelligence will reshape the manufacturing production mode and industrial system, from intelligent equipment to intelligent workshops and intelligent factories, data-driven manufacturing will become the new mode of manufacturing.
It is expected that China's digital economy as a share of GDP is expected to reach around 60% in 2027, with a predicted size of $15.7 trillion. For the manufacturing industry, whether it can catch up with this wave of intelligence is likely to be the key to deciding whether to live or die in the future.
Nowadays, many people think that robotic arm, unmanned factory, black light factory is the "representative" of intelligent manufacturing, in fact, this is a very one-sided perception.
Intelligent manufacturing is actually a systematic project, from product development, product design, process design, production process management, production delivery, operation and maintenance, etc. to improve the level of intelligence, only to enhance the decision-making layer, management, R & D layer of the level of intelligence, is considered the real intelligent manufacturing.
I went to Dongguan the other day to visit a mattress company, Mousse, and was very inspired. As the most traditional home furnishing industry, Mousse has invested heavily in intelligent transformation since 2015, not only copying and introducing new digital technology, but also a series of transformations from the inside to the outside, from the organizational structure, management, talent structure, and even corporate concepts and culture.
For traditional manufacturing industries like Mousse, digital transformation is not an easy task. After 8 years of continuous investment and struggle, Mousse is the production, service, products, stores, logistics and other links to form a digital closed loop.
When I visited the factory, I found that from the production line to the final packaging of the product, Mousse's entire process production line is only two places with manual intervention, the automation rate is very high.
At the same time, Mousse also adjusts through massive data feedback, constantly iterating its core technologies, capabilities and products, to make the mattress the ultimate, even close to the luxury goods, and competitive in the European and American markets.
By coincidence, I was in Shandong to visit a steel enterprise - Yongfeng Group. This enterprise in the nearly industry-wide losses under the situation, still maintains the industry's fairly high profit margins, and in the cost of tons of steel and per capita tons of steel production of these two important indicators, are to maintain the industry's leading position. The secret of Yongfeng's success is lean-centered smart manufacturing.
When I visited Yongfeng, I was most impressed by the sci-fi intelligent control center, which is just like the command room in a Hollywood blockbuster. 400 pieces of various types of electronic screens are updated with data jumping, and 37 operation islands are connected to more than 30,000 equipments on the site, conveying commands to the production bases 5 kilometers away.
Before each furnace steel smelting, the model has automatically calculated the amount of material added; smelting process, preparation, charging, gun operation are automated by the system; when smelting is completed, the production cost has been automatically accounted for, from the video, running parameters than the former site to see the more accurate understanding. Standing in the intelligent control room, you can really feel the moment rhythm of this super intelligent brain.
Talking with the executives of Yongfeng Group, they emphasized a concept that I am very interested in. Manufacturing enterprises produce a large amount of data in the production process, but the vast majority of it is wasted, each production unit seems to be an isolated data island, the process, the factory is difficult to collaborate with each other, and the flow of data from the production line upward needs to go through layers and layers of transmission, data accuracy, real-time data in the vertical transmission and horizontal barriers in the encountered great loss.
Many links can only be a "master with a small apprentice", with experience and feeling operation, invariably add a lot of costs.
The construction of Yongfeng Intelligent Control Platform, the core is to solve the problem of effective utilization of data, so that the data can be extremely transparent and real-time connectivity, the whole plant, the whole process data flow on a unified platform, convergence, and directly for the intelligent application of all levels of personnel control decision-making to provide data support.
According to the executives, the data generated by Yongfeng Intelligent Control Center is about 1.5 billion per day, and it can probably do 30% in terms of effective application of data.
This figure does not sound very high, but in fact, for the upstream industrial enterprises, the average is only 5%, Yongfeng 30% data utilization level, has been nearly six times the industry average. And if you further think about it, the level of data utilization if you can get to 80%, there is still more than double the room for improvement, intelligent manufacturing to improve the space is still quite large.
④ New consumption
In the area of new consumption, emerging consumer trends are significant in the current economic environment.
We generally recognize the importance of the manufacturing sector, especially its role as the backbone of the national economy, a view that is particularly pronounced among government officials and business leaders. We must turn our attention to areas with more growth potential, namely, productive services and services for life.
Regrettably, many government officials have not fully recognized the potential of these two areas and have focused excessively on traditional manufacturing industries to attract investment, largely ignoring the future development trend.
China's productive and living services industries have enormous room for development in China. In recent decades, China has made remarkable achievements in these two areas, ranking among the top in the world.
Taking express logistics as an example, the convenient and efficient logistics services we enjoy are rare worldwide.
In contrast, in some foreign cities, such as Paris, the delivery time for same-city couriers can take as long as 15 days. This demonstrates China's unrivaled competitive advantage in terms of excellence in the lifestyle services industry.
Next I will share how I see the new consumption through 3 stories.
Story 1: Diaoyutai State Guest White Wine
The year before last, at the invitation of President Ding, I was deeply involved in the study of Guizhou's liquor industry and traveled all over the mountains and rivers of Guizhou. I realized that the quality of Guizhou's liquor is outstanding in the country.
However, local governments and wine industry practitioners are too obsessed with expanding production capacity, ignoring the demand for consumption upgrading. We propose that we should shift from single-product sales to lifestyle sales, realize the integration of wine and tourism, and turn Guizhou into an idyllic oriental Switzerland of poetry and wine.
The deep integration of wine and tourism not only creates a huge space for development, but also enhances the overall level of Guizhou's tourism industry.
At present, the Guizhou provincial government has adopted this program, and it is gradually landing under the active promotion of Mr. Ding. Many places plan to build winery culture to attract tourists and realize the dual interaction between product output and humanistic experience.
Story #2: One for the books Anaya
At a time when China's real estate industry is in a general downturn, Anaya has risen to the top and achieved great commercial success.
Early on, I predicted that China's real estate market would change, and that companies would have to shift from simply selling properties to selling lifestyles and services.
At that time, most real estate companies did not pay attention to it, but a CEO of a Beijing real estate company, after taking over the windbreak forest resources in Beidaihe, with innovative thinking, created a community Anaya, which integrates a seaside library, a lonely church and other cultural facilities.
This series of initiatives has struck a chord with the new age consumers and attracted a large number of people. What followed was the construction and prosperity of various service facilities.
Anaya's success story shows that in the new consumer era, selling life is far more important than selling products, and that a marginalized project can also buck the trend and become a symbol of quality of life.
Story 3: Guizhou Village Super
Last year, the rural e-commerce village super model emerged across China, and was particularly prominent in Guizhou.
Relying on the huge online traffic, the Village Super model has successfully attracted the attention of European soccer giants such as the English Premier League and Serie A, realizing cross-border cooperation and changing the embarrassing position of Chinese soccer on the international stage in the past.
Village Super has deepened its layout in education and culture, such as youth training, and expanded its influence along the Belt and Road.
Guizhou Province in the process of investment promotion, originally difficult to introduce the world's top 500 companies began to pay attention to and take the initiative to seek cooperation, and even make the deserted land become hot.
This phenomenon shows that geographical location is no longer a decisive factor in the new consumer trend. Even remote areas can become focal points radiating across the country or even the world if they seize the windfall of new consumption.
In short, China is in a period of four new profound changes, namely, the rapid development of new infrastructure, new energy, new intelligence and new consumption.
As these areas continue to evolve, the future of China's consumer market will present more diverse and creative new business forms. Enterprises and individuals with the courage to innovate and gain insights into consumer needs will have the opportunity to shine on this stage and become trend-setting protagonists, no matter where they are.
V. The Great Outpouring
One last one, to talk to you about the Great Exodus.
Not long ago when the two sessions, I saw TCL founder Mr. Li Dongsheng's a point of view, he believes that the current China is out of the game without going to sea, this statement I agree with half, in my opinion, today has entered the era of Chinese-style globalization.
Two days ago, a foreign journalist wrote a very interesting article in which he said that nearly 200 years ago, the British fleet traveled across the Cape of Good Hope, crossed the Pacific Ocean and the Indian Ocean, and arrived at the Tiger Gate in southern China to wage war against the Eastern Empire, defeated the Qing Empire, and finally ushered in a brand-new new era of Western domination of the world.
Nearly 200 years later, the same route, starting from China and finally rounding the Cape of Good Hope, reached Europe and the United Kingdom, loaded with BYD cars. In a short span of 200 years, the sluggish autumn winds are now changing the world.
Yesterday it was the West that descended to strike China, defeating Eastern agrarianization with Western industrialization. Today, it is the East that is striking China from the ground up, and we are using our own highly sophisticated products to leave the West defenseless.
When we look around the world today, we have a new feeling that the Chinese have begun to lead the globalization of the sea.
But this road to the sea, accompanied by the United States to suppress TikTok, Pinduoduo, and today's Europe to start to anti-dumping way to hit Chinese cars. Whether or not it can be fought is another matter, but behind this is a fundamental shift of the times.
Many people in China feel involution, but in fact China is not only the products can go out, many in the domestic cruel competition in the business model, also in the world has a very strong competitiveness.It's the closed environments that feel the roll, and once you get out there, the opportunities are endless.This means big opportunities for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in addition to the big players we just mentioned.
I'll share a story from my side. I have a friend, I nicknamed him Earth Guardian, he is a Ningde man. He is a very smart person, see what is good to do what, the reaction is very fast, OEM has done, clothes, shoes and hats have done, culture and tourism has done, real estate has done.
I chatted with him the year before last, and he was still excited about making the best tent hotel in Guizhou. Suddenly one day he sent me a message saying Mr. Wang I found a huge opportunity, I have sold all my domestic assets, and I can't take care of the tents, I want to go out on the sea, and he said he wants to go to Indonesia.
After that time, he sent me something almost every day, saying that he wanted to build a Shekou in Indonesia, and I said how could this be possible. I did not expect less than two years, he took twenty or thirty square kilometers of land in Indonesia, the year China developed this special zone experience to take the past, a variety of capital to run quickly, just like a local Chinese leader.
In today's China, we see everywhere is the involution everywhere no opportunity, I meet around a lot of are desperate people, yesterday's play to today can not find a way out.
But when this group of people went overseas, they saw all the opportunities, so they became such a diaspora leader overnight, which is a typical example.Many enterprises in China to practice this kung fu, after going overseas, look everywhere is gold, everywhere is a business opportunity.
Our Chinese young people have the conditions to really go out more to walk around, now Chinese people go to Southeast Asia to go overseas, the conditions than when we were the older generation do not know how many times stronger.
To recap, the first sentence is how do we look at the world today, the second sentence is how do we look at China in the present, and the third sentence is how do we move from the first half to the second half of the new quality of productivity in the future, and how do we move from the first half to the second half, to dance with it.
This new quality productivity, that is, the four new: new infrastructure, new energy, new intelligence, new consumption. In the second half, if we catch up with the new economy, the new quality of productivity of the strategic emerging industries, congratulations, even if we can not catch up, our traditional old economy can be upgraded.
Even if this road does not work, we will go overseas, put the rich experience and contacts accumulated in China, as well as by virtue of China's developed industrial chain, as well as China's most mature way of trade in services, there are also a lot of opportunities overseas, so the opportunity for everyone is equal.
issues that I've felt for decades.Challenges, difficulties, and pain are often great assets to a successful person, and they are definitely an abyss of suffering to a failure.
The second sentence, a person down the road, must not blame the objective environment, more from themselves to find the problem.
I'm not a talented person, but there is one thing, I have walked down all my life I never complain about the objective environment, winter has winter play, summer has summer play, the key to see how you can improve yourself, and then with the times, dance with the times. This will ensure that no matter whether you are big, medium or small, you can effectively traverse the cycle.
VI. Conclusion
To conclude, I would like to share with you a philosophy of life, a philosophy of life that is often spoken by the elderly in our Guizhou province, full of the wisdom of the farming civilization: "Eat what is in the bowl, keep an eye on what is in the pot, and watch what is in the field."
What does that mean?
Eat from the bowl: you must have your own core competenciesYesterday may be able to become by the pitfalls, tomorrow is impossible, your core ability to do a small bowl of noodles, medium to do a logistics supply chain, large to do a leader in the industry, must be the first to do their own thing well to do.
In addition to getting my own kung fu right, I have to keep my eye on the pot, or the second curve.Regardless of any industry, there is always that hurdle of transformation and upgrading to fix the roof when the sun is shining.
And finally, there's watching the field. Watching the field is strategic foresight.It is important to have a clear judgment of future trends so that you know what to do and what not to do. It is only then that you will not go hungry, no matter what the year of plenty or lack of it.
A lot of things we look at the world to look at China to look at the future, as if I think it has nothing to do with me, in fact, it is very relevant, as long as we get through these three, eating the bowl, staring at the pot, looking at the field, we can go through the cycle, we can be in the middle of this variety of challenges, find the inevitable, we can really do the foundation of the industry everlasting.
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